Business group Deloitte has recorded that this Christmas people plan to fill their stockings a little less than usual as the average consumer plans to spend 7% less than last year.

The warning going out is that, this Christmas could be one of the toughest in decades for retailers, especially when compared to last year, where spending increased by 7%. This is according to Deloitte’s 14th annual Christmas Retail Survey, where 1,000 people across the country were interviewed.

The figures show that overall, 24% of customers in the UK plan to cut back and spend less this year on presents than they did last year. But it also showed that about 57% planned to spend about the same amount as 2007, and 19% expect to have to spend more.

The total average amount people predict they will be spending this year is £655. This is primarily on gifts, socialising and food and drink.

While the overall spending amount is set to fall by 7%, it is shown that the majority of this will be cut-backs in socialising – 12% less than last year.

More people are however, planning on buying some of their gifts at the supermarket, where the prices are competitively cheaper than the high street stores. 56% of people are planning on doing this, this year, compared with 52% last year.

Strategic advisor to the retail practice at Deloitte, Richard Hyman, has said: “I think the main headline is this is worst Christmas for a generation…But as a nation we’ll be spending £36 billion so it’s not a disaster.
“Broadly speaking, we believe sales will be flat this Christmas, with a slight fall possible.”

He added that retailers will be hoping that last week’s interest rate cuts will boost people’s disposable incomes.

Overall, 19% of adults have said that they plan to spend more this year, if you narrow the age gap to 16-24 year olds, 36% said they intend to spend more.

49% of 16-24 year olds said that they plan to have a good Christmas and “worry about the cost later”, a concerning amount.

Deloitte’s head of retail, Tarlok Teji, has said:” This age group has grown up in an affluent society with technology products and designer wear, are comfortable with debt, and have never been in a recession…Their high propensity to spend represents an opportunity for those retailers targeting younger customers.”

Underlying sales at supermarket group J Sainsbury rose by 3.4 percent in the first quarter of the financial year, putting the retailer behind Tesco’s 3.5 percent increase and Wm Morrison’s 7 percent rise over similar periods.

Sainsbury’s chief executive, Justin King, said today that food price inflation in his branches “was a little over 3 percent in the quarter, up just 2 percent in the previous quarter, but well below official government statistics.” He said he agreed with Bank of England governor Mervyn King that inflationary pressures would continue for the next six to 12 months, adding that “prices for Sainsbury’s non-food items were still showing some deflation.”

Darren Shapland, finance director, said that most of the 3.4 percent like-for-like sales increase came from food price inflation, with “volumes just above flat”. The company’s fuel sales benefited from higher prices and from extra volumes as motorists shopped around for cheaper petrol.

Mr King said he was pleased with the company’s performance in the quarter, which met the group’s expectations. Although the group adjusted the number to take account of the changed timing of the Easter weekend, the quarter compared with a strong period last year, when like-for-like sales were up 5.1 percent.

Mr King said Sainsbury was “fighting hard for customers” whose household budgets are being squeezed by increasing its emphasis on promotional offers, extending its “Basics” range of cheaper foods and launching a “Feed your Family for a Fiver” campaign.

Recent consumer research suggests customers were cutting back on eating out in restaurants which could benefit sales of Sainsbury’s, up-market, Taste the Difference range.

Mr King was happy to report that non-food sales were continuing to “grow strongly” as ranges were expanded. Online sales improved by more than 40 percent, and improvements to the supply chain in recent years meant product availability in shops had risen further.

The company’s total sales in the 12 weeks to June 14th rose by 8.1 percent, given a boost by the increase in fuel prices.

Excluding new store openings like-for-like sales rose 7.3 percent, including fuel sales.

Echoing last weeks trading update from Tesco, which said its growth had slowed from more than 4 percent in the early weeks of its fourth quarter, the 3.4 percent increase in sales marks a slowdown from the 4.1 percent growth Sainsbury reported in the fourth quarter of last year.

Sainsbury shares have dropped since its 600p a share bid from a Qatari-backed investment group was dropped last November – Qatar holds a 24.9 percent stake in the company. Shares were 5p lower in early trading at 331p.

Given the chance there is not one investor in the world who would pass up the chance to make a profit on a short term investment, but you ask how many would take that gamble with no guarantees and it is a totally different matter. In the heady days of the 1980s and early 1990s we saw the trend towards so called “day trading” take off, with more and more people chasing the fast buck in markets that seemed to rise and rise. The technology boom was the perfect market, until the bubble suddenly burst – BANG!

The bursting of the technology bubble in the early 1990s saw many people literally wiped out with the vast majority of so called “day traders” suffering horrendous losses – many were not able to return back to the market. One problem for the day traders was that when the good times rolled, margin (i.e. collateral held by a broker to cover the investment) was no problem, but once the bubble burst losses began to grow and grow and margin calls become greater and greater. Many decided to try and trade themselves out of the market, but this placed more and more investors in impossible situations.

While it would be wrong to say that all day traders lost their investments in the technology boom and burst period, it was only the clever ones, the ones who sold before the top who actually made and kept their money. As more and more people chased the markets, this pushed share prices higher and higher, further feeding the frenzy to get in and make a quick buck – many investors were making thousands within hours, but it could not last!

Short term investment is a high risk game unless you are very astute and actually know what is happening in the wider market place, sectors and individual companies. You could get the right share at the wrong time and lose, when in a better market the same share and situation would have made you a fortune. It was this fact that many people could not grasp, they became greedy and share price valuations shot into outer space – it just did not add up.

Any investment which you make into the stock market should be seen on a long term basis and money which you will not need for some time. If it is money that you cannot afford to lose then you really need to consider whether you should be investing at all. As we are seeing at the moment, economies move in cycles and there are clear times to buy and clear times to sell, although they only become clear after the event!

Long term investments have the potential to give you the best rewards, choose your stocks, your sector and monitor your investments carefully. Long term investment into a good long term company is great and should reward you, but on the other hand, if your investment shows signs of trouble then you should consider whether the investment can recover in the long term.

Stock market investment has proven to be very beneficial in the longer term (outperforming the vast majority of other asset classes over an extended period) and while there may be chances to make a short term profit, is it sensible to invest with a short term investment view?

Bank policymakers of UK are concerned about the expected high inflation levels and the consequences the industry will face. It is feared that the inflation will increase over the period. Bank of England is struggling with the rising price pressures and slow growth rates and the soaring inflation expectations will also affect the interest rates as it will come down more slowly than expected. Bank of England in its February survey stated that the public expect the inflation to be around 3.3 percent in the coming year and also the current inflation levels have jumped to a record level of 3.9 percent.

Bank of England setters have also warned that the impending inflation originated by the rising and falling cost of worldwide commodities will worsen the situation further and the actual threat to UK’s economy will be further price hikes and more expectations of the public which may lead to higher inflation levels.

BoE has reserved the rates at 5.25 percent during the first week of this month however shareholders are making a bet that the rates will fall as low as 4.5 percent within this year. This kind of predictions also makes the position of the Monetary Policy Committee more difficult as this dampens the interest rate cut in the near-term. It is believed that the workers may demand higher wages to meet the rising prices of commodities and the industry will be forced to increase the wages to retain them.

Many economists feel that the consumer’s inflation expectations are overly influenced by the increased price of essential commodities such as petrol and bread. According to the economists, because of the latest price hikes and the increased rates of food price the public tend to expect the inflation to grow at a higher rate and the fact that this piece of information is widely exposed further supplements the belief.

The CPI inflation as per the last reading was 2.2 percent in January. The retail price index which also comprises of mortgage payments was 4.1 percent during this period and the news has created much concern for BoE as the high inflation expectations will reduce the chances of quick cut in interest rates. Since December, Bank of England has undertaken two quarter-point cuts and has kept the standard rate at 5.25 percent. So, for the moment the economists feel that the Bank’s apprehension about inflation has balanced its growth fears.

The prime factors that affected the CPI had also affected the RPI and the mortgage interest payments had a downhill effect on the RPI during this month. Also, the RPIX inflation on all the items excluding mortgage interest payments had risen to 3.4 percent in January from the 3.1 percent mark in December. Moreover, the largest growing pressure on RPI is due to the raise in the price of fuels. With oil prices at 110 dollars, the inflation rate may further rise to record prices and economists are also voicing their fears to the Government.