Bank policymakers of UK are concerned about the expected high inflation levels and the consequences the industry will face. It is feared that the inflation will increase over the period. Bank of England is struggling with the rising price pressures and slow growth rates and the soaring inflation expectations will also affect the interest rates as it will come down more slowly than expected. Bank of England in its February survey stated that the public expect the inflation to be around 3.3 percent in the coming year and also the current inflation levels have jumped to a record level of 3.9 percent.

Bank of England setters have also warned that the impending inflation originated by the rising and falling cost of worldwide commodities will worsen the situation further and the actual threat to UK’s economy will be further price hikes and more expectations of the public which may lead to higher inflation levels.

BoE has reserved the rates at 5.25 percent during the first week of this month however shareholders are making a bet that the rates will fall as low as 4.5 percent within this year. This kind of predictions also makes the position of the Monetary Policy Committee more difficult as this dampens the interest rate cut in the near-term. It is believed that the workers may demand higher wages to meet the rising prices of commodities and the industry will be forced to increase the wages to retain them.

Many economists feel that the consumer’s inflation expectations are overly influenced by the increased price of essential commodities such as petrol and bread. According to the economists, because of the latest price hikes and the increased rates of food price the public tend to expect the inflation to grow at a higher rate and the fact that this piece of information is widely exposed further supplements the belief.

The CPI inflation as per the last reading was 2.2 percent in January. The retail price index which also comprises of mortgage payments was 4.1 percent during this period and the news has created much concern for BoE as the high inflation expectations will reduce the chances of quick cut in interest rates. Since December, Bank of England has undertaken two quarter-point cuts and has kept the standard rate at 5.25 percent. So, for the moment the economists feel that the Bank’s apprehension about inflation has balanced its growth fears.

The prime factors that affected the CPI had also affected the RPI and the mortgage interest payments had a downhill effect on the RPI during this month. Also, the RPIX inflation on all the items excluding mortgage interest payments had risen to 3.4 percent in January from the 3.1 percent mark in December. Moreover, the largest growing pressure on RPI is due to the raise in the price of fuels. With oil prices at 110 dollars, the inflation rate may further rise to record prices and economists are also voicing their fears to the Government.

As if the Nick Leeson “rogue trader” episode of 1995 was not enough for the financial markets to digest, we have today seen inter-market fraud taken to a new level with news that ONE rogue trader has taken a $7 billion gamble with the funds of establish French Bank Societe Generale - and lost the lot!

The person in question is believed to be Frenchman Jerome Kerviel, a 31-year-old trader who worked on the firms Delta One products team, which basically involved taking large positions on the future movement of share prices. The fraudulent transactions seem to have taken place between 2007 and 2008, and using a number of techniques which he seems to have gleaned from his time in the back office, the trader has managed to conceal his position until now.

While the Bank will still report a profit for the year, the massive hit on the bank’s asset base will force them into the market to raise more capital to shore up their balance sheet. The banks shares were suspended at the opening of today’s market trading but soon resumed after the announcement, immediately falling 3.6%. Societe Generale are unwilling to give away much detail until a full review has been carried out, but there are major question about how a trader earning less that 100,000 Euros a year has been able to rack up such large positions, apparently unnoticed by the company’s accounts department.

There is also a secondary problem for the bank now that this situation has been released to the public – if one trader could hold the bank over a barrel to the tune of $7 billion, are there any more skeletons in the cupboard?

Until a full review of the banks positions and internal procedures has been carried out – not to mention probable intervention by the regulators – there will be a sense of uncertainty regarding the company and the share price is likely to suffer further during this period.

While the rest of Europe continues to converge into one, the UK is being some what left behind but we are slowly making ground.  Whether the UK voters likes it or not, the UK is a major and very important part of Europe and it is highly likely that at some point we will catch up with the process, or risk losing our spot at the top table.  But how will it affect your finances in due course?

The main change at some point will be a change to the ECU, something which many are fighting but at some point it seems inevitable that it will happen.  This would see one interest rate set across Europe by what many expect to be a leading European Central Bank – with input from all member states.  While this would reduce the affects of currency movements, it will have a massive impact upon the financial sector.

In many ways it will make it easier to access European financial services, which under the EU finance directive, will see all members states receiving free access to other member state markets.  We will see a whole host of cross selling, new instruments introduced and a general expansion of the sector.  As the UK currently has one of the largest and most robust of financial sectors, we have most to lose unless we take some form of lead.

ECU mortgages and loans will soon become common place, cross European employees will be paid in the European currency rather than their own – well possibly…….

While there are many who claim that the above scenario will never happen, each year brings it closer.  The fight goes on but at some point it will become a case of the UK being left out unless the authorities go for full participation.  That time is not here yet, but it is not as far away as many think…….whether you like it or not.