The European Union Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) gains new force, effective Tuesday 13^th December 2011. Proposed by the European Commission and approved by all 27 member states and the European parliament last October, this legislation grants the EU council the power to impose financial sanctions upon a member state on the basis of a Commission recommendation. Currently, member states enter “Excessive Deficit Procedure” (EDP) if they fail to keep budgetary deficits below 3% of GDP and government debt below 60% of GDP. Of the 27 member states, 23 (including the UK) are currently subject to EDP and must comply with correctional recommendations and deadlines decided by the EU council. Member states failing to comply with the recommended corrective action may be subject to in-depth reviews (the results of which will be made public) carried out by the EU Commission in collaboration with the European Central Bank.

Report Criteria (according to www.europa.eu)

· 3 year backward moving average of the current account balance as a percent of GDP, with a threshold of +6% of GDP and -4% of GDP
· Net international investment position as a percent of GDP, with a threshold of -35% of GDP
· 5 years percentage of change of export market shares measured in values, with a threshold of -6%
· 3 years percentage change in nominal unit labour cost, with thresholds of +9% for euro-area countries and +12% for non-euro-area countries
· 3 years percentage change of the real effective exchange rates based on HICP/CPI deflators, relative to 35 other industrial countries, with thresholds of -/+5% for euro-area countries and -/+11% for non-euro-area countries
· Private sector debt in % of GDP with a threshold of 160%
· Private sector credit flow in % of GDP with a threshold of 15%
· 3 years percentage change in nominal unit labour cost, with thresholds of +9% for euro-area countries and +12% for non-euro-area countries
· Year-on-year changes in house prices relative to a Eurostat consumption deflator, with a threshold of 6%
· General government sector debt in % of GDP with a threshold of 60%
· 3-year backward moving average of unemployment rate, with a threshold of 10%

This legislation comes into effect only two days after British Prime Minister David Cameron’s veto of the latest EU treaty proposals, which include a cap of 0.5% of GDP on countries’ annual structural deficits, “automatic consequences” for countries whose public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP, and a requirement of member states to submit their national budgets to the European Commission, which will have the power to request that they be revised.

The US economy saw its first growth in over a year, rising to an annual rate of 3.5% between July and September.

Experts believe that a major spending plan by the US government which featured a scrappage scheme to encourage the car sales market has been the main cause of the upturn.

Some economists believe that there could be more setbacks lurking ahead, despite the official statistics showing that the recession is over.

A spokesman at the White House announced that recent economic progression was “a welcome milestone” but it would take more time for a full recovery to be recognised.

The US economy had risen 0.9% in relation to the previous three months, whereas the UK economy remained in recession, unexpectedly dropping 0.4%.

Hugh Pym, the chief economics correspondent for the BBC, revealed that the growth rate of 3.5% was greater than the 3.3% predicted by most experts.

He continued:”The sheer scale of the stimulus in the US has made a big difference, it was much bigger in percentage terms than that in the UK.”

“That the US, the powerhouse of the world economy is growing once again, is good news for the global economy has a whole.”

The last time the US economy grew was in the second quarter of 2008, by an annual rate of 2,4%.

The National Bureau of Economic Research will reveal the full extent of the US economic climb from recession when it analyses all the factors.

Some factors were significantly responsible for helping US economy during the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department.

The spending on durable manufactured products rocketed up at an annual rate of 22.3% which was the highest quarterly figure since 2001 and was spearheaded by the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ scheme helping new car sales.

Consumer spending increased on housing products by 23.4%, the greatest quarterly surge in 23 years, and came as a result of an improving housing market.

The big increase is considered by many to be due to the government’s $8,000 tax credit provided to first-time house buyers.

Government spending increased by 7.9% as stimulus spending spread and exports saw their biggest rise since 1996, rising by 21.4%.

Brian Bethune, an economist for HIS Global Insight stated that “it’s good to have the economy growing again.”

“But we don’t think that rate of growth is sustainable because it is distorted by all the government stimulus.”

“The challenge here is to get organic growth – growth that isn’t helped by fiscal steroids.”

However, unemployment is at a rate of 9.8% and a sharp fall came in September in the car sales industry as a result of the popular car scrappage scheme coming to an end in August.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Centre of Economic Policy Research believes that “you can say that the recession is over, but it sure won’t feel like that.”

“There is a lot of downward momentum that isn’t going to go.”

Whilst the general financial atmosphere is improving and optimism growing, it is too soon to announce that we are in the process of recovery, according to experts at Ernst and Young Item Club.

The influential professional services firm expects some growth towards the end of 2009, but this growth should begin to struggle, with 1% expected growth for 2010.

They also predicted that customers repaying debt will grow slower than first anticipated and impending tax rises will follow the election.

BT Business research predicted a more optimistic outlook, declaring that small businesses are positive about the forthcoming year.

In September, BT Business conducted a survey of over 7000 small businesses and found that 75% believed their business would see an upturn in 2010, with 61% confident about their business’ prospects.

Professor Peter Spencer, Chief Economist from the Item Club, issued a wake-up-call to all those getting carried away with the optimism of recovery.

He warned, “there could still be substantial pain to come for corporates and consumers.”

“For a sustainable recovery the UK economy needs world trade to pick up and there is still not much sign of that happening.”

One of the factors holding back growth is that the VAT rate will return to 17.5% from its current level of 15% on 1 January, a change which may see consumers making purchases before the New Year.

Several other factors which will hold back growth lie on the horizon. An increase in national insurance contributions, the new 50p tax rate, the termination of the car scrappage scheme, tighter government spending and the return of stamp duty on housing are all due to hit the country.

Judging whether the recovery is happening, on the way or unlikely is difficult to forcast.

Professor Spencer went on to tell the BBC that the recent economic data has been “very mixed,” adding, “the stock market is absolutely rampant, industrial surveys all back in positive territory, but it’s yet to show through in hard data for output and things like that.”

“And when it comes to lagging indicators like unemployment, I’m afraid it’s going to be ‘feel bad’ for quite some time to come.”

On Friday, the official statistics for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are released, with many expecting no economic growth at all.

GDP is a measurement of the services and goods produced in a country, and since the first quarter of 2008, the UK GDP has been in negative figures.

The Bank of England has focused on quantitative easing, an act of pushing money into the economy. Professor Spencer feels that this has been of little success, with the little improvement on bank lending, going on to complain that “instead, the banks appear to have used much of the money to rebuild reserves and improve liquidity.”

Official statistics show that one of the main measures of inflation has reached its lowest point since September 2004, another sign of sterling weakening. The annual rate of 1.1% in September was lowered from 1.6% in August by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).

A separate measure of inflation conducted by the Retail Prices Index (RPI) found that mortgage interest payments and housing costs also dropped, from -1.3% to -1.4%.

The pound also reached its lowest point in the past six months when it fell 0.5% against the Euro to 1.0628 Euros and to a five-month low of 1.5730 US Dollars.

Weak

Duncan Higgins, a senior analyst for Caxton FX, felt that “this is bad news for the pound.”

“The CPI figures will weigh heavily on the UK currency and will continue to discourage investment.”

A report conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business research predicted UK interest rates would not rise above 0.5% until 2011 and fail to meet the 2% mark until 2014; a further damnation to the outlook for the pound.

Meanwhile, the strength of the UK economy was dealt a further blow last week when it was revealed that industrial output dropped in August.

A prediction for the GDP had to be recalculated by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research after the UK economy failed to grow during the June/September quarter.

However, the economy is still very “frail” according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), despite business confidence improving.

In an effort to sustain a stable broader economy and prices, the Bank of England is making efforts to retain 2% CPI inflation. Should the CPI inflation drop below 1%, the governor of the Bank of England must provide a written explanation to the Chancellor, Alistair Darling.

High energy prices a year ago, in comparison to lower energy prices this September are being blamed for the recent fall in inflation. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that electricity, gas, and other fuel bills tumbled by 7.3%. Energy costs have started to level more recently, with little change from August to September.

Jonathan Loynes from Capital Economics predicted that we can expect to see CPI back at the 2% mark by the start of 2010, due to increased energy prices and VAT returning to 17.5%. He does believe that a “huge amount” of unused production capabilities would keep inflation down and “keep alive the threat of a period of outright deflation late next year or beyond.”

In contrast, Keith Wade of Schroders UK forecasted that it “probably will be the low point in inflation.”

Bank policymakers of UK are concerned about the expected high inflation levels and the consequences the industry will face. It is feared that the inflation will increase over the period. Bank of England is struggling with the rising price pressures and slow growth rates and the soaring inflation expectations will also affect the interest rates as it will come down more slowly than expected. Bank of England in its February survey stated that the public expect the inflation to be around 3.3 percent in the coming year and also the current inflation levels have jumped to a record level of 3.9 percent.

Bank of England setters have also warned that the impending inflation originated by the rising and falling cost of worldwide commodities will worsen the situation further and the actual threat to UK’s economy will be further price hikes and more expectations of the public which may lead to higher inflation levels.

BoE has reserved the rates at 5.25 percent during the first week of this month however shareholders are making a bet that the rates will fall as low as 4.5 percent within this year. This kind of predictions also makes the position of the Monetary Policy Committee more difficult as this dampens the interest rate cut in the near-term. It is believed that the workers may demand higher wages to meet the rising prices of commodities and the industry will be forced to increase the wages to retain them.

Many economists feel that the consumer’s inflation expectations are overly influenced by the increased price of essential commodities such as petrol and bread. According to the economists, because of the latest price hikes and the increased rates of food price the public tend to expect the inflation to grow at a higher rate and the fact that this piece of information is widely exposed further supplements the belief.

The CPI inflation as per the last reading was 2.2 percent in January. The retail price index which also comprises of mortgage payments was 4.1 percent during this period and the news has created much concern for BoE as the high inflation expectations will reduce the chances of quick cut in interest rates. Since December, Bank of England has undertaken two quarter-point cuts and has kept the standard rate at 5.25 percent. So, for the moment the economists feel that the Bank’s apprehension about inflation has balanced its growth fears.

The prime factors that affected the CPI had also affected the RPI and the mortgage interest payments had a downhill effect on the RPI during this month. Also, the RPIX inflation on all the items excluding mortgage interest payments had risen to 3.4 percent in January from the 3.1 percent mark in December. Moreover, the largest growing pressure on RPI is due to the raise in the price of fuels. With oil prices at 110 dollars, the inflation rate may further rise to record prices and economists are also voicing their fears to the Government.

As if the Nick Leeson “rogue trader” episode of 1995 was not enough for the financial markets to digest, we have today seen inter-market fraud taken to a new level with news that ONE rogue trader has taken a $7 billion gamble with the funds of establish French Bank Societe Generale – and lost the lot!

The person in question is believed to be Frenchman Jerome Kerviel, a 31-year-old trader who worked on the firms Delta One products team, which basically involved taking large positions on the future movement of share prices. The fraudulent transactions seem to have taken place between 2007 and 2008, and using a number of techniques which he seems to have gleaned from his time in the back office, the trader has managed to conceal his position until now.

While the Bank will still report a profit for the year, the massive hit on the bank’s asset base will force them into the market to raise more capital to shore up their balance sheet. The banks shares were suspended at the opening of today’s market trading but soon resumed after the announcement, immediately falling 3.6%. Societe Generale are unwilling to give away much detail until a full review has been carried out, but there are major question about how a trader earning less that 100,000 Euros a year has been able to rack up such large positions, apparently unnoticed by the company’s accounts department.

There is also a secondary problem for the bank now that this situation has been released to the public – if one trader could hold the bank over a barrel to the tune of $7 billion, are there any more skeletons in the cupboard?

Until a full review of the banks positions and internal procedures has been carried out – not to mention probable intervention by the regulators – there will be a sense of uncertainty regarding the company and the share price is likely to suffer further during this period.

While the rest of Europe continues to converge into one, the UK is being some what left behind but we are slowly making ground.  Whether the UK voters likes it or not, the UK is a major and very important part of Europe and it is highly likely that at some point we will catch up with the process, or risk losing our spot at the top table.  But how will it affect your finances in due course?

The main change at some point will be a change to the ECU, something which many are fighting but at some point it seems inevitable that it will happen.  This would see one interest rate set across Europe by what many expect to be a leading European Central Bank – with input from all member states.  While this would reduce the affects of currency movements, it will have a massive impact upon the financial sector.

In many ways it will make it easier to access European financial services, which under the EU finance directive, will see all members states receiving free access to other member state markets.  We will see a whole host of cross selling, new instruments introduced and a general expansion of the sector.  As the UK currently has one of the largest and most robust of financial sectors, we have most to lose unless we take some form of lead.

ECU mortgages and loans will soon become common place, cross European employees will be paid in the European currency rather than their own – well possibly…….

While there are many who claim that the above scenario will never happen, each year brings it closer.  The fight goes on but at some point it will become a case of the UK being left out unless the authorities go for full participation.  That time is not here yet, but it is not as far away as many think…….whether you like it or not.