Financial News

House Sales Still Sinking

9 12 2008

According to the latest survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), house prices fell even further in November.

Rics have said the number of sales are now at their lowest level since 1978. In the three months prior to November, estate agent sales fell to 10.6, from 10.9 just a month ago.

Rics spokesman Jeremy Leaf said: “Many are starting to see the current market as an opportunity to purchase a previously unaffordable property despite the worsening economic picture. But unless people feel relatively confident about their job prospects, they’re unlikely to even try to obtain mortgage finance unless of course trading down or seeking to release capital.

“Vendors still have to accept the inevitable fact that house prices are falling and re-price their property to suit current market conditions.”

Rics are also looking at the little bit of light. Interest in potential buyers has risen again, and is now in the positives for the first time in over a year.

The number of potential buyers has risen, so that the chartered surveyors who have reported having potential buyers not outnumbers the number of surveyors who have seen enquiries fall by 14%.

According to Rics: “the rise in interest reflects both the drop in asking prices and recent cuts in interest rates.”

London has been the worst hit over the past three months, with just seven sales per estate agent on average, followed by Wales and East Anglia.

This is all despite the fact that house prices are still falling. Rics found that 76.5% more of its members had seen house prices still falling instead of rising. This is only a little better than last month’s balance of 81%.

According to the survey: “the main factor that is depressing prices is the large stock of property on estate agents’ books relative to the pool of able buyers rather than any surge in distressed selling.”

The results from this survey were published just a day after Rics predicted that the value of commercial property will drop by 50% from its peak in June last year to its ‘trough’, which could happen as late as 2010.

It is thought that the accelerating fall of rents will cause capital values to fall by 16% in 2009 and 105 IN 2010.

The office sector is likely to be the worst hit, with another 30-35% drop predicted, which will push up the price of the total decline to 60%.

Job cuts in the banking, finance and insurance sectors is having an effect on office spaces. There is less call for warehouse space, and consumers are buying less “big ticket” items.

Senior Economist at Rics, Oliver Gilmartin, claims that: “we are only halfway through the price correction in the commercial property market.”  He added that he hoped the downturn would start to reverse in 2011, with the help of recovering global growth and low interest rates.

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