Inflation Rate Expected to Rise above 3 percent
17 06 2008The inflation rate, when issued later by the Bank of England, is expected to have risen above 3 percent in May, which could force the Bank’s governor to write an explanation to the chancellor as to why the rate is above the target of 2 percent.
Rising oil and food prices have pushed up the cost of living, while the UK’s economic growth has slowed.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose unexpectedly in April from 2.5 percent to 3 percent, the biggest rise for six years. Some analysts predict CPI in May to have reached 3.2 percent. Rising Inflation has not only affected the UK, much of the worlds economies have suffered.
“Having leapt unexpectedly in April, there is a serious chance that consumer price inflation will move higher in May,” said Vicky Redwood, an analyst at Capital Economics.
If, when the figures are announced, they are one more percentage point above the governments 2 percent target, the Bank of England governor must write a letter to explain how it is to take control of consumer prices.
Mervyn King and his colleagues are likely to say that international commodity price hikes are to blame for the rise.
Up to this point, Mr King has only had to write one of these kinds of letter before, in April 2007.
Howard Archer, UK economist at Global Insight, said: “This would almost certainly be the first of several letters, as consumer price inflation looks well set to reach 4% this summer before starting to fall back late in the year.”
It would appear that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – the group of experts that set the Bank of England’s interest rates - is in a tight spot.
Analysts have warned that the rise in interest rates to curb inflation would dampen an economy that is already struggling from slowing growth and a weakening housing market.
At the most recent rate-setting meeting on June 5th, the Bank did not change its interest rate of 5%. The MPC, in an attempt to help the slowing economy, had already cut interest rates three times since December.
However, despite pleas from those struggling in the housing market, MR King and his colleagues will need to be convinced that the inflationary threat has passed.
The European Central Bank, which governs the 15 nations using the Euro, warned that inflation remained its biggest concern and that it would raise rates if it felt price stability was under threat.
Consumers and companies are already struggling with the effects of higher energy and food bills. With oil prices nearly double over last year, and the cost of petrol and diesel constantly on the rise, people have reigned in their spending in other areas.
As well as this, food prices have surged to record levels because of increased demand and inclement weather in key producer nations.












