The Bank of England indicated yesterday that Britons should not expect further cuts in interest rates for at least two years. It warned that inflation would rise far above its previous forecasts and continue at levels well above the government’s target until earl 2010.

Bank governor, Mervyn King said the consequence of price increases would be “a squeeze on real take-home pay, which will slow consumer spending and output growth, perhaps sharply”.
He added that it was “quite possible we may get the odd quarter or two of negative growth”, but added that a recession was not the Bank’s central forecast.

Chancellor, Alistair darling said his unfunded £2.7bn tax cut would “support the economy when it needs to be supported”.

However, Mr King said the effects of the emergency budget would be “modest”.

The bank said inflation was likely to rise above 3 percent over the next few months and would remain more than one percent age point above its 2 percent target.

Every three months the independent bank will have to explain to the government how it will bring inflation back under control if it deviates by more than one percentage point from the target. Even though the UK economy will slow sharply, the banks inflation projections do not return to the 2 percent target until early 2010, which suggests they have no room for cuts until then.

The bank’s stance on monetary policy appears similar to that of the European Central bank.

Mr King contrasted his position with that of Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve. “We did not fall prey to the sirens to cut interest rates further as some other central banks have done,’’ he said.

Over the past three days, the market has moved from expecting to cuts in UK rates to believing there will be none over the next year. Last night, prices in the overnight index swap market showed investors thought a UK rate rise was slightly more likely than a cut.

Mr King said the blame for higher inflation lay with surging energy and food prices, along with higher import prices. The bank also expects the price of gas and electricity to rise by a further 15 percent over the coming months.

Malcolm Barr of JPMorgan said: “The Monetary Policy Committee believes it has to tolerate a slowdown in growth which is sharp, takes the economy close to stagnation and continues well into 2009 if it is to control inflation risks.” Believing the message in the inflation report was clear.

Bradford and Binglay is the latest British bank to bolster its balance sheet as it launched a £300m rights issue.

Hit by the turmoil in the capital markets and concerns about declining UK house prices, the mortgage lender is proposing to offer shareholders 16 new shares for every 25 shares they own, at a price of 82p each.

It said the issue - priced at a 36 per cent discount to the theoretical ex-rights price and a 48 per cent discount to the Bradford and Binglay’s closing price on Tuesday of 158¾p – would “strengthen the group’s capital position and mitigate the impact of the previously announced reductions in the value of certain of the group’s treasury investments.”

The move comes as the majority of the UK’s banks are under pressure to strengthen their balance sheets, which have been exposed as fragile after the lenders suffered losses on securities back by US mortgages. HBOS has announced plans to raise a £4bn rights issue while Royal Bank of Scotland is looking to raise £12bn.

The bank’s capital ratios are expected to come under scrutiny when the Barclay’s issues a trading update to investors on Thursday.

The proceeds of Bradford and Binglay’s rights issue will further boost its capital base. This should ease concerns about the effect on the bank’s portfolio of treasury assets. The rights issue is fully underwritten by Citigroup and UBS.

With pressure on the banks from financial regulators to boost the amount of capital they hold is likely to have caused the decision to be made. At the end of December, the lender had a tier one capital ratio – the key measure of balance sheet strength – of 8.6 percent, similar to RBS’s increased target.

B&B said that the rights issue would have given it a pro forma Tier One ratio of 10.1 per cent as at December 31, and the board revised its target ratio range to between 8 per cent and 10 per cent.

Lending margins on new mortgages have widened significantly in recent months as smaller specialized lenders have been forced out of the market. The additional capital will allow B&B to continue selective mortgage lending in the buy-to-let market.

In a statement B&B said: “Demand for buy-to-let mortgages remains high with continuing tenant demand and rising rents. The supply of mortgages to meet this demand is constrained by the lack of funding generally and the withdrawal of several competitors from the mortgage market.

“In raising this additional capital, the directors are confident that the group will be better placed to take advantage of these market conditions by writing selective good quality business at attractive margins.”

Centrica, the company that controls British Gas warned first-half operating profits would be “materially lower” than a year ago, adding that the high wholesale gas and electricity prices behind the slump in performance were set to continue into the second half.

In February Centrica said margins were under pressure and on Monday it said profit margins had been pushed below long-run targets. Full-year earnings per share are now seen at the lower end of market expectations.

In a trading update, the energy group said, ““we will take the necessary action to deliver reasonable margins in the retail business”. They added that gas and electricity prices had doubled in the last year.

The shares reversed earlier losses to trade 9¼p or 3.2 per cent, higher in London at 296¾p. The expectation of a profit warning saw the price lose some 4.3 per cent last week.

The cost increase moved gas suppliers to raise their tariffs earlier this year. The move came just a British Gas’s residential division was beginning to recoup customers who jumped ship when it raised its prices ahead of competitors last years and had major problems with its billing system.

British Gas said its tally of residential customers had risen above 16m again, when the full year results were posted in February, but in Monday’s interim statement it said the number had fallen to 15.9m.

The residential business accounted for 40 per cent of group revenues last year and 30 percent of profits.

The company said that in 2008 it upstream division’s performance would be very strong but it would be offset by lost sales. Also, the shift in business mix will increase the tax rate to around 55 per cent.

Centrica was already in the news this weekend as it emerged they are seeking to claim £182m in damages from Accenture who designed the company’s billing system that was introduced in 2006.

Customer complaints against British Gas soared, and it was forced to hire up to 2,500 additional staff at one point to deal with the problems created. Accenture described the claim as “baseless and without merit”.

British taxpayers look set to suffer from the £10bn of writedowns, as a result of global credit turmoil, unveiled in recent weeks by Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and HBOS.

The banks will knock more than £2.5bn off their combined tax bills and, though some losses will be booked outside the UK, the majority is expected to come at the expense of the British taxpayers.

The figure, which represents more than 5 per cent of the Treasury’s forecast for corporation tax receipts in the 2007-08 fiscal year, underscores the dependence of the public finances on the banking industry, which has accounted for a growing proportion of the tax base in recent years.

In 2005-06, the banking, insurance and finance sectors paid £11.6bn of corporation tax, around a quarter of the total.

In the US, the credit turmoil has shown a 13.6 per cent drop in corporate tax receipts totaling $173bn since the start of the fiscal year in October, according to the Congressional Budget office. Receipts amounted to $201bn during the same period last year.

That being said, the $28bn shortfall could be drowned out by the impact of the $150bn fiscal stimulus package designed to prop up the economy later this year. The stimulus is the main reason for projections that the US budget deficit is likely to double to $400bn this year.

A true indication of the damage suffered by UK banks from the market turmoil will be highlighted this week when HSBC and Barclays, the country’s largest and third-largest banks, respectively, announce their first quarter results. Analysts expect Barclays to announce writedowns of £1.4bn before tax.

Public finances will be affected in a number of other ways. Job losses and lower bonuses in the city of London may lead to lower income tax receipts, while fewer housing deals and lower house prices could undermine the amount raised by stamp duty.

The impact of the banks’ losses is particularly significant because all witedowns, even if the losses do not affect banks’ reported profits, have an effect on banks tax bills.

The treasury has said it had taken account for possible losses from the global credit turmoil in last autumn’s pre-Budget report. It did not adjust the forecasts, which predict corporation tax receipts of £47bn for the 2007-08 tax year.

The government has pledged to help homeowners who are struggling with their mortgage payments. The Council of Mortgage Lenders says there are 11.8 million outstanding mortgages in the UK.

The help the government will provide comes by way of free legal advice for those at risk of repossession, along with specialist training for debt advice agencies.

The pledge came after key figures from the mortgage industry met Chancellor Alistair Darling and Housing minister Caroline Flint at Downing Street.

Figures published later are set to show more people facing the first stage of the repossession process, but experts say the current situation is a long way off from the problems seen in the early 1990s.

The limited package of measures are aimed at the million-plus borrowers whose fixed-rate deals come to an end this year.

These borrowers are more likely to face higher repayments and have less availability when it comes to mortgage deals as a result of the credit squeeze.

The new debt advice service would be set up through the National Housing Service in order to limit the impact. Specialist training will be available for Citizen’s Advice Service and local authority staff, and lenders will be encourage to give advice to borrowers in difficulty.

Householders in England will also gain free legal representation at all county courts. Ms Flint said, “For the minority of owners who may need support and advice now, we want to ensure it is there for them in the right place and at the right time.”

“It is important to recognize we are dealing with an entirely different situation in the market from what was experienced in the early 1990s,

The fundamentals of the housing market remain strong with high employment, low interest rates, and long term demand for homes from first time buyers.” She added.

Later today, the Ministry of Justice will publish figures on the number of possession claims – the first stage of the repossession process – for the first three months of the year. The information is expected to show that the credit crunch on household finances has caused a rise in claims.

The number of actual repossessions, across the UK and by private lenders only, is shown in figures from the Council of Mortgage lenders (CML) which are published twice a year. The Data for the fist half of this year will be published in August. The CML predicts there will be around 45,000 repossessions this year, an increase of 27,100 from last year.

Labour is in emergency talks to renegotiate over £10m of loans from wealthy businessmen to prevent itself running out of money.

The millionaires, most of whom lent money to Labour in the run-up to the 2005 election, are due to be repaid by the party in the coming months but with the party £20m in the red, they are in no position to do this.

The party is holding combined talks with the lenders to find a single agreement that would enable the Labour to stagger the repayments over nine years. Sources on both sides of the discussions have said that an announcement is just weeks away.

The news is just another kick while Gordon Brown is down, after the Conservatives claimed that the PM had “lost control of the Scottish Labour party”. Wendy Alexander, the party’s leader north of the border, defied the prime minister by calling for an early referendum on Scottish independence.

Chief fundraiser for Labour, Jon Mendelsohn, has been leading talks with representatives of the businessmen, who include curry magnate Sir Gulam Noon, property entrepreneur Sir David Garrard, retail tycoon Richard Caring and former chief executive of Priory healthcare, Chai Patel.

Although most of the dozen millionaires who bankrolled Labour in 2005 have accepted the principle of the negotiations, Biotech entrepreneur Sir Christopher Evans openly asked for his money back and was repaid.

If talks succeed and everyone agrees the terms, the loan repayments will be spread up until 2017.
If talks were to fail it may have severe consequences for the ruling party at time when morale is fading fast. Labour’s general secretary, David Pitt-Watson, pulled out of the position last week because he was concerned about an unincorporated association due to the debts of Labour. Ray Collins, a senior figure in the Transport and General Workers Union is likely to take the position.

As Labour struggles to find funds the opposition’s coffers have been filling up. Conservative fund-raising has reached £11.3m in the fourth quarter last year, compared to £5.9m for Labour, who are relying heavily on the unions who gave the party 77 percent of its funding in those three months.

The Daily Telegraph has launched a campaign today called Fair Deal for Drivers. This has come about after statistics showed the average motorist is paying more than £600 a year extra in tax under Labour. The organization is backed by Mp’s, charities and motoring groups all of whom are urging the Prime Minister to give cars users a better deal.

It is expected that the treasury will receive at least £48 billion in car related taxes this year.
With this growing evidence that drivers are being unfairly targeted by the Treasury, Gordon Brown is under pressure to reconsider a series of controversial tax rises.

The AA have compiled figures that show the average motorist has to pay out more than £1800 annually in fuel duty, car tax, VAT on petrol and other levies – all of which are an increase of more than 50 percent in just over a decade.

This years budget includes tax rises that take effect next year and could double the cost of vehicle excise duty for popular ‘school-run’ saloons to more than £400. This will also apply to cars bought over the last seven years.

The PM is also under pressure to scrap the 2p increase in fuel duty, which has already been pushed back until the autumn. The treasury receives 64p from every £1 of fuel purchased.

There are around 27 million motorists in the UK with each driver paying an average of £1,811 to the Exchequer every year – an increase of £652 over the past decade.

AA president Edmund King, said: “This campaign is needed because it appears the car is seen and taxed as a luxury rather than a necessity. Motorists are now taxed at a higher rate than champagne drinkers but for the vast majority of people driving is an absolute necessity.

“The high taxes are now affecting people’s lives and families are having to cut back on other areas of spending to pay for their cars. What is really hitting people are these plans for retrospective taxes.

“The Prime Minister should now be listening to these concerns.”

The new director of the RAC Foundation, added: “There is no logic behind the fact that the Government now spends far less on roads than it collects in motoring taxes.

“In the 1970s they were in balance, but tax revenues have grown in line with road use, while spend on provision has fallen.

“Road users must expect to pay for such environmental and other damages as they cause to others: and they do. But this does not account for the imbalance.

“It is not reasonable that roads have become treated as a ready source of funds for all the Government’s activities.”

Critics have also noted that while the revenue from the Treasury is almost £50 billion, the total spending on roads is less than £8 billion.

In addition, suspicions of pay-as-you-drive road tolls are also present after Chancellor Alistair Darling earmarked money for trials of the technology needed for a nationwide scheme on motorways and key routes.

The tax rises are just another blow to motorists as petrol prices rise above £1.10 a litre for unleaded – near £5 a gallon.

The government has tried to justify the tax rises by claiming that they will encourage more Eco-friendly behavior. However, official projections forecast that carbon dioxide emissions from motoring will drop less than one percent over the next few years.

Britain’s largest defence contractor, BAE Systems, will have to appoint a senior executive as well as publishing a global code of ethical business, a report recommended on Tuesday.

The report was produced by senior retired judge Lord Woolf and sets outs 23 recommendations that will ensure the company maintain “world class business practices”. The report was commissioned last summer by BAE to put an end to years of criticism that have dogged the company since the Al Yamamah arms deal with Saudi Arabia in 1989.

The Al-Yamamah contract has been controversial from the start, with allegations of bribery and slush funds being used to entertain Saudi Officials and royalty. That being said, BAE have always denied any wrongdoing.

The report has recommended that there should be a detailed assessment of all ethical and reputational risks in any business decision taken by the board, senior executives remuneration packages should include a reference to ethical behaviour and that appointments of external advisors be codified.

The report also calls for “long overdue reform” of Britain’s bribery laws and that BAE should continue to forbid facilitation payments as a matter of global policy.

Lord Woolf said the report provided “a route-map…that will ensure it becomes a leader among global companies for its standards of ethical business conduct”.

One of the main criticisms of the report was that it failed to look at BAE’s past business dealings. Lord Woolf admitted that the company’s unethical conduct has “damaged the global reputation of this country”.

“In my view it is of great importance that the chairman and chief executive have acknowledged to this committee that the company did not in the past pay sufficient attention to ethical standards and avoid activities which had the potential to give rise to reputational damage, he added”.

During the committee’s review a EuroFighter Typhoon aircraft was sold by BAE to Saudi Arabia. Lord Woolf claimed to have access to certain documents related to the contract and “on the basis of this information, it appeared to the chairman that the contract should not in itself create any risks of unethical conduct by the company”.

BAE has agreed to implement the recommendations in the report.

As the market continues to digest the £12 billion fund raising by Royal Bank of Scotland there are more rumours that Barclays are about to come cap in hand to shareholders for £3 billion of new funding. So what will the money be used for and who really benefits?

The sub-prime mortgage crisis which preceded the credit crunch has seen a great number of banks around the world suffer multi-billion dollar losses on some of their investments. This reduction in their asset base has reduced their ability to borrow money in the money markets due to limited available collateral. This is the situation which many experts identified, stating that even a return of confidence to the market would not see asset values pick up overnight – arguing that a much needed injection of capital was needed for many UK banks to allow them to go back into the money markets.

So who benefits from the fund raising?

While ultimately it will be the shareholders and customers of the banks who benefit, in the short term all shareholders are doing is bailing out the banks directors who have been a little reckless with their actions of late. It is the same old scenario whereby good markets attract more competition which cuts margins which pushes banks into more risky environments. Chasing the next major income stream, the next major profit has brought the banks to the situation we are in today.

If you look back to other recessions and banking sector problems of the past, they all have a very similar thread. Boom times, more competition, reckless lending and moves into riskier markets to bring in the next big income stream – these things are so predictable that it really is untrue!

Only this week we have seen the Bank of England come under renewed pressure after their quarterly report suggested that some UK banks had overstated the affects of the credit crunch and losses would not reach the nightmare figures which have been suggested. This seems a strange comment to make when you consider the banks recent suggestions and comments about the situation. Quite why they have affectively given the banks the green light to return to similar business practices in the future remains to be seen, but those comments may well come back to haunt the Bank of England.

While there are suggestions that we may well be over the worst of the credit crunch, those who are expecting a sharp bounce are very much mistaken. Asset values are still only a fraction of what they were, the housing market is falling in the UK and the economy is set to slow considerably over the next 12 months. We may well have seen off the worst of the credit crunch but the after affects are only just starting to hit home.

The UK economy is probably in a worse position than many around the world with the government taking on extra debt to cover their budget deficit. This is money which will need to be repaid and looks set to hold back the economy and investment into public services in the short to medium term. Things are not as rosy in the UK as many would have you believe.

As the results of today’s locals elections in England and Wales start to roll in it seems that Gordon Brown’s mandate to run the country may be hanging by a thread. Initial indications are that Labour will lose up to 200 council seats and a whole host of councils. But what does this mean for you? What does this mean for the economy?

The good news is that by sending Labour a very harsh message the voters of the UK are putting great pressure of Gordon Brown to deliver to the voter, with tax friendly policies and assistance for those in real need. The bad news in the short term is that the UK economy has never been as depressed and low for many years and there is no short term fix.

What is the outlook for the Stock Market?

One thing which the stock market dislikes is uncertainty and while the vote in the local elections seems to be indicating a change in government at the next general election, politics has never been that simple. The present government are very unlikely to call an election until 2010 meaning that we effectively have a government ruling the country that does not have a recognisable mandate from the electorate.

Outlook For Taxes

While the Labour government will be looking at every way possible that they can tax the rich and subsidise the poor, their hands are really tied in the short term. They need to the more wealthy of the country to keep the economy going in these difficult times, but they need to reconnect with their core voters and ensure that they have a more comfortable living. Very tricky!

Outlook For Government Policies

The government can now ill afford to push out more and more policies which are being resisted by the masses. We will see more and more Labour MPs fighting back against the government, voting against policies and looking to ensure that they do and say the right things to retain their seats at the next general election.

Outlook For Cost Of Living

This is another area in which the UK government have very little room for manoeuvre, they can’t reduce taxes because they are already running a massive budget deficit and tax income is set to fall further. The possible only chance they have of getting back onside with voters is to force the utility companies to give a little more back to society, but even this will be difficult because the utility companies have had valid reasons to increase prices of late.

Summary

There are many who are expecting a leadership challenge in the summertime as the iron grip which Gordon Brown was once so famous for continues to falter. He has lost the trust of voters, he is losing the trust of his own MPs and he is up against a refreshed and rejuvenated Conservative Party.

Make no mistake, life at Number 10 will be very tough for the next couple of years, if Gordon Brown actually manages to see out his term in office – which to many seems more and more unlikely by the day.